The Darnall-Preston Complexity Index
Understanding and leading complex systems (such as a project) require a firm understanding of systems that have been developed from other industries and areas that can be adapted to project management to make projects much easier to manage. For this to be possible, project managers and team members must understand what these complex systems are and how they operate.
Complex Systems
The term complex is very subjective and therefore hard to give one concrete definition in regards to projects. One way of defining complexity is to look at other complexity models in varying industries and looking for insights that may apply to project management. A perfect example of this are cells, and how as cellular structures grow the complexity grows with it which creates the very complex plants which we see every day. However, at its baseline form, a cell is a very simple structure.
The complexity of a system is often determined by the number of parts or tasks involved, the degree of difference among the parts, and the overall structure of the contributing components. The most complex systems are the irregular systems, which are usually unique to themselves and have an element of random structure and/or interactions. We identify these as complex because the design or rationale behind the structure may not be as organized or efficient as other comparable systems.
On the other hand, many systems we perceive and know to be simple are simple because of their organization and homogeneous connections. These can be compared to an assembly line: efficient, autonomous and logical in their design. All of the involved components of a simple system work as expected, while complex systems have contributors whose collective tasks and interactions cannot be inferred based on behaviors.
In addition to the number of contributing parts of the system, the degree of difference between parts as well as the number type and strength of the various parts plays a major role in system complexity.
A perfect example of this is a human brain compared to a computer. A computer is simple, with the system having three main connections within the system that interact consistently. However, the human brain has thousands of cells than can, and are, connected to one another with very different cells being in contact with each other. Complexity is all about the context of the situation in addition to the involved parts.
Complex Adaptive Systems
In the domain of project management, a project’s complexity is determined by its number of tasks, type and strength of connection among these tasks, and the project environment and how the tasks fare in this environment.
Projects are adaptive systems, meaning they are systems that have multiple tasks that will interact across multiple fronts which leads to a web of networks. What makes these projects adaptive compared to a normal complex system is how the tasks and contributing components react to outside factors such as environment. The successful adaptive systems are those that interact and react to their environment in favor of the project/purpose of the system.
Relationship Dependence
The dependence of the project on the tasks, interdependence of tasks and contributing parts, and uniqueness of the tasks and parts can be labeled as the “relationship dependence” of the project tasks. In complex adaptive systems, this relationship dependence will be a major factor. To determine the nature of the complex adaptive system, it is best to observe the impact of change on one task and the effect on one or more other tasks and the overall behavior of the system.
The project tasks must be observed as interrelated, as they are the building blocks of the system. The impact of one part and the changes involved with that task cannot be assumed to change the entire system or project.
Within a project, just because one task may be completed early does not mean the entire project can be assumed to finish earlier. There are many other factors, such as project kickoff activities and muti-dependence that will negate or diminish the impact of a single change or single task.
Complex Adaptive Systems have a few main characteristics:
1. Complex Adaptive Systems tend to self-organize
Formal organizational charts are effective at reporting surface-level relationships, yet struggle to display project relationships. Projects organize around the tasks and work done, phases of the project life cycle and involved parties. The project organization reacts to the nature of the work at all varying stages of the life cycle.
During the early stages of a complex project, the project manager will develop an organizational chart or document which includes all of the involved parties and stakeholders for the project. This chart will include all of the major companies, leaders from the client company and the key subcontractor firms. Regardless of the details and complexity of this chart, it will often be subject to change as the project adapts and progresses differently than planned.
Simply put, the system will adapt to meet the needs of the project as it progresses through its natural phases.
During the project planning phase, the project team will identify the primary needs of the project, and the communication will be tailored to supporting the project team and their individual and group efforts. However, as with most projects there are subcontractors and members of the project outside of the project team, so communication will adapt based on who is on each end of the communication and what is needed from either end.
The project team will reorganize their information flows and priorities to support each changing phase of the project and the tasks included. A good, experienced project manager will facilitate adaptive behavior of the project organization by minimizing the formalities and impact of formal processes and procedures.
2. Complex Systems adapt to changing environments
A complex, deterministic system is a system that will produce the same results if started in the same environment. The outcome should be easily predictable if the beginning environment is consistent. An insightful example of this if the firing of a gun. If all factors in the beginning are constant, the results of the gun firing should be a closely grouped target.
A nonlinear, chaotic system can produce vastly different results even if the beginning stages are consistent. This makes the predictability of a nonlinear chaotic system almost impossible, as there is no way to anticipate results. Weather is a prime example of this. It is common to have full weeks where each day’s weather is drastically different than the last.
Projects are most often a nonlinear system, where if the same project were to be completed 5 times, each outcome and project timeline may be drastically different. While in the planning phase for a project, the project manager and team can assume that the project will follow their project timeline and plan, yet in reality projects only follow plans a small percentage of the time. Something as small as one subcontractor calling out sick for a day can send ripples through the project and completely change the original plans.
Not all projects will experience this severity in environmental impact, yet all projects will experience some form of environmental shift during the project life cycle. This is one of the primary reasons that project managers will develop an aggressive change management process.
The purpose for developing a change management process is not to stop change in the project plan, but to anticipate and incorporate changes into the project planning and execution phases. Project, as all other complex adaptive systems, must react to the changing environment around them in order to have success. Plan as if the project will have a predictable outcome, but anticipate and prepare for unexpected changes to occur.
In addition to the changes in the surrounding environment, the internal project organization and environment are both in constant change. People will join and leave the project team, leave, get sick and cannot work, and many other scenarios that will change the project team. The new office may have issues that make it unhabitable, a new software becomes available that the team must learn, and again many other scenarios that will derail the original project plan.
From this, it is evident that the project team is constantly dealing with both internal and external changes, which is understable based on the nonlinear nature of projects. An increase in the number of events within the project and project environment that will likely change during the project timeline increase the project complexity overall.
3. Darnall-Preston Complexity Index
Correctly profiling a project requires a system that is easy to use but involves enough input that it takes in the most important characteristics of a complex project. The Darnall-Preston Complexity Index achieves this goal by identifying 11 major characteristics into 4 umbrella categories: internal attributes, external attributes, technological complexity and environmental attributes.
Projects are more inclined to fail at the beginning rather than the end. The importance of knowing this is to understand how impactful the environment can and will be on a project, and therefore the importance of creating an execution plan that can withstand the changes and environment. The cost of recovery late in a project can be extremely high when projects are misread or the execution plan does not solve the critical issues of the project environment.
In addition to the standard, expected changes in the project, an execution plan that is not aligned with the environment and does not plan to manage the changing landscape will create barriers that make recovery of the project hard. In some situations, the lack of preparation for the environment can compromise the entire project.
The Darnall-Preston Complexity Index is a tool to assist project managers, team members and project stakeholders in developing a detailed analysis of the environment and what factors are involved. The index also uses these factors to develop a more effective project execution plan which aligns best with the environment. Analyzing the project environment and involving it in the execution and change management plans increase the chances of project success tremendously.
In the absence of an accurate assessment of the project landscape, the project manager and leaders will make assumptions about the project and develop the execution plan accordingly. The accuracy, as well as the quantity/quality of these assumptions will significantly influence the project execution plan’s success.
The amount of available information for the project manager will increase over time and assumptions will be removed and replaced with this information. The addition of this information will ultimately lead to better change management and project execution. As better tools are developed for evaluating the project environment, higher quality information will become available to the project team.
The project environment includes all the conditions that may impact the outcome of the project. Factors like project size, technological complexity, cultural barriers, political environment, and resource constraints all play a hand in the project in some form or fashion. Understanding the impact these factors make will give the project manager insight on how to anticipate and plan for these and prepare for impact.
The Darnall-Preston Complexity index is just one of many models that can be used for analyzing and preparing for projects. This particular index assesses the complexity of the key components of the project and produces a unique profile for each individual project. The profile determines the project’s complexity level, which provides the opportunity to compare projects, and provides information about the details of the project that can be used for project execution planning.
The Darnall-Preston Complexity Index provides the project stakeholders with information about the project to give a status report. This report defines the experience, knowledge, skills, and abilities needed by the project manager. This index also has expectations for the composition, organization, and skills needed by all leaders involved in the project. The index provides the information and context for developing the project plan and determining the likelihood of success.
Summary
Complex systems can be very effective in achieving goals, if the leading members of the system understand how the system operates and plan accordingly. Most projects will classify as nonlinear, meaning the outcomes are difficult to predict, even given consistent inputs.
Projects are also classified as adaptive complex systems, meaning that projects will adapt and change based on the environment and many factors within the project. This leads project managers tasked with preparing for the unpredictable factors of the project life cycle.
Additionally, complex systems have two main characteristics that are consistent across the majority: complex adaptive systems tend to self-organize and change based on the environment.
To help with analyzing project systems, project managers can use tools, such as the Darnall-Preston Complexity Index, to determine the complexity of a project and compare it to other similar projects. These tools also give project teams information from other systems similar so they can prepare more effectively for the inevitable changes that occur throughout the project life cycle.