Deltek added a new Coded Ranges Forecast Method in release 30 of Cobra 8.4. This calculated forecast allows the user to assign a forecast method based on a Control Account or Work Package Code, or alternatively, a forecast method based on the Earned Value or Progress Technique. This is a helpful addition to the canned forecast methods and will likely find a home in ETC update processes.
The biggest benefit is the ability to associate various forecast calculations into a single cost class, something that was lacking to a large degree. There is one other forecast technique that also allows for more than one calculation method, the Percent Complete Ranges, but the Cobra Guy hasn’t found this method helpful, at least not to this point.
Cobra does limit the number of codes or Progress Techniques that can be selected to three. Any Control Accounts or Work Packages that do not use the three selected codes will use a fourth forecast method that must be selected.
The most useful options when using the Coded Ranges Forecast Method are the Control Account or Work Package Code. This will be covered first, followed by the Progress Technique option. As in all calculated forecasts, these methods are more intended as an assist in updating a formal forecast and rarely will be representative of an accurate estimate to complete.
This requires human intelligence which can consider other factors affecting remaining effort, where a calculated forecast has no ability to include these factors in its calculation.
Setting up the Project for the Coded Ranges Forecast Method – Codes
Keeping in mind that the Coded Ranges Forecast method only allows three codes to be used, it will be important to create a code file with 3 options. This code can be assigned to either work packages or control accounts, and can be setup as “Optional” or “Required”. If “optional” is selected, the code isn’t required to be assigned to all work packages or control accounts.
In the following example, the Control Account code for “Location” will be used.
Step 1: Launch Project Properties from the Edit menu. Navigate to the Classes tab and click on “New”.
Step 2: Name the new cost class, provide an optional description and change the type to “Forecast”. Then “Next”.
Step 3: For this example, select work package to have the calculation occur at this level. The other option is control account. No right or wrong answer here. The calendar set option can be used to consolidate periods into quarters, years, etc. assuming calendar sets have been set up.
For this example, the basic calendar set that includes all periods in the project will be used. The other three options are not relevant to this exercise.
Finally, if the default rate file isn’t appropriate to forecasting, select the appropriate rate file. If no rate file is selected, Cobra will use the default rate file.
Step 4: Select the forecast method from the drop-down list. For this exercise, the Coded Ranges method is selected. The Forecast Dates field allows either Forecast, Early or Late dates to be selected.
Step 5a: Using the Code Field drop-down, select the appropriate code field, in this case the Control Account Location. It isn’t required to necessarily use all three fields for the code value, but obviously the user must select at least one. The field “Other”, however, must have a forecast method assigned regardless of how many codes are selected.
In this example, 3 codes and the Forecast Method are selected. “Other” will have its own Forecast Method. (The Relative Weighing values relate to the “Houston” Forecast Method.)
Step 5b: Alternatively, the Progress Technique can be selected, as shown below. Select this option from the Code Field drop-down menu, then select one to three Progress Techniques. Select a Forecast Method for each, making sure to also populate the required “Other” field.
Step 6: Once these are setup, “Next” and “Finish”.
This Forecast Method will calculate a forecast for all in-progress and planned work packages. Calculate the Coded Ranges cost class using the Calculate Forecast process.
Conclusion
In conclusion, when using the new Coded Ranges Forecast Method in Deltek Cobra, it is recommended that any calculated forecast be used as a guide to those preparing an updated ETC. This assists in encouraging a consideration of past performance in estimating remaining effort. Having a calculated forecast as the starting point for an ETC udpate will likely result in a more accurate ETC than a truly grass-roots estimate.