P6 Professional Global Change tool can assign a risk level to each task and later apply a contingency reserve to adjust the task duration based on that respective risk factor.
Task duration estimates may include the following considerations:
- Activity Attributes: description, resources, and dependencies.
- Activity Resource Requirements: required daily effort, availability, and skill level.
- Project Scope Statement: contractual terms and conditions, working/environmental conditions, and availability of information.
These duration estimates could further be affected by project risks. These risks are known-unknowns, things we know we do not know. A hurricane is an example of a known-unknown; it is a known event, but its occurrence or impact is uncertain or unknown. A hurricane can have two uncertainties: track and intensity. If its track or intensity is uncertain, that event is considered unknown. The hurricane is thus a known-unknown—the risk register lists and documents these known-unknowns.
The estimator may include the probability and impact of these risks in the task duration estimates. However, some risks may not become apparent till the details of the tasks are more evident and after receiving the task duration estimates. You want to apply a contingency reserve to the original duration of tasks affected by these later-defined risks or any risks not included in the duration estimates.
The Fill Down and Global Change tools in P6 Professional can assign risk factors to multiple efforts, and then the Global Change tool can apply a contingency reserve to tasks at a given risk level. The amount of contingency reserve should always be based on quantifiable risks. This way, you can make your schedule more aligned with reality.
This article demonstrates ways to assign risk factors to tasks and, later, a contingency reserve based on each task’s risk factor.
We have in Figure 1 our demonstration project schedule.
The estimator provided the duration estimates in the original duration column, Figure 1. We want to assign each task in the schedule a risk factor. We create an activity code-named risk factor and add the following values to this activity code, Figure 2.
We add a column for our Risk Factor activity code in Figure 3.
There are at least two ways to assign these activity codes to tasks other than the Global Change tool. In Figure 4, we select the Contract Award Date task, choose Enterprise | Activity Codes | Codes | Assign button, and then assign risk factor NONE to this task.
Most of our tasks have a risk factor of NONE, so we populate all the other task’s risk factor fields with the NONE risk factor. This can be done by selecting the Contract Award Date risk factor, holding the shift key down, and then selecting the last row in the risk factor column, Figure 5.
Click the mouse on the field at the intersection of the risk factor column and the Final Quality Assurance Inspection task row, Figure 5. Next, right-click anywhere in the risk factor column and choose Fill Down from the popup menu, Figure 6.
This populates the risk factor column with the NONE risk factor, Figure 7.
Let’s now demonstrate activity code assignments using the Global Change routine. We choose Tools | Global Change and create a Global Change routine to assign all the Piping Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) element tasks with a HIGH risk factor and click OK, Figure 8.
We click the Apply Change button to run the routine, Figure 9.
Click Yes when the popup dialogue appears in Figure 10.
We review the report and confirm the assignment of the risk factor HIGH to all the tasks associated with the Piping WBS element, i.e., deliverable, Figure 11.
We then click Commit Changes, Figure 11, and say No to the log file. Continuing, we edit this Assign risk factor Global Change routine to assign the risk factor MEDIUM to the Thrust-block deliverable and click OK.
Click Apply Change, Review the Report, and select Commit Changes. The resulting schedule appears in Figure 13.
We Proceed and select the Insulate Piping effort, Figure 13, and left-double-click on its risk factor field for this Insulate Piping task. Then, we assign the risk factor LOW to this sole task, Figure 14.
Our final risk factor column appears in Figure 15.
Continuing, we create a Global Change routine to apply a Contingency Reserve to all tasks assigned the risk factor HIGH, Figure 16.
After entering the operator and clicking to assign a Parameter/Value, choose {Custom} from the dropdown menu, Figure 16. Enter 2.75 for the Parameter/Value and click outside the Parameter/Value field, Figure 17.
In this Global Change routine, all tasks with a HIGH-level risk factor have their original duration multiplied by 2.75. Click Ok. Then click the Apply Change button, review the Global Change report, and Commit Changes, Figure 18.
Proceeding, we create a Global Change routine to increase the original duration of MEDIUM-Level risk factor tasks by multiplying them by 1.5, Figure 19.
Run the MEDIUM-Level risk factor routine. Choose Tools | Schedule, and in the Schedule dialog box, click the Schedule button, Figure 20.
The final Contingency Reserve adjusted schedule appears in Figure 21.
Summary
The estimator provides task durations, which are estimates based on activity attributes, available resources and other contract-related items. When considering project risks like weather, procurement delays, and technical issues, you may want to add contingency reserve to your project efforts. This way, you can account for real-life events significantly affecting your schedule duration.
You assign risk factors using the Fill Down feature or create and run a Global Change routine, whichever is more efficient.
In our demonstration, we wanted to show the different ways to assign risk factors and not necessarily employ the most efficient means for our small schedule. Once all tasks have a risk factor, the Global Change routine can apply contingency reserve per their risk level. The Global Change tool thus makes for an efficient way to apply contingency reserve to activities in Primavera P6.