Deltek Acumen is a helpful tool for analyzing schedule uncertainty related to activity duration estimates. It is also possible to additionally include the effect of specific risk events. Risk events may be weather related calendar events or other threats to the schedule. Procurement delays are a particularly prevalent risk event in scheduling. And, yes, Deltek Acumen efficiently considers procurement delay risk events.
This article demonstrates how to account for schedule late delivery risk events in Deltek Acumen.
We begin in Figure 1 with our demonstration Primavera P6 Professional schedule.
This is a Piping Inspection & Repair project. The damaged piping is first inspected then the appropriate pipe adapters are ordered for delivery. After arrival of the adapters the piping repair is completed. This schedule has duration uncertainty because of inefficiencies in the duration estimates. It also has the risk that the adapter piping components will not arrive as planned.
Both duration uncertainty and risk events can be analyzed in Deltek Acumen. Again, this article explains how to account for procurement delay risk events.
We have our schedule imported into Deltek Acumen and saved as a workbook in Figure 2.
We want to model a procurement risk event. This is done in the S3 // Risk tab, Figure 3.
In Figure 4 we select right panel | risk register to display the risk register for our schedule.
Highlight the Order & Delivery of Adapters activity and click Add Risk Event, Figure 5.
Continue the Order & Delivery Adapters selection and check Mapped in the risk register, Figure 6.
This assigns the risk event to the Order & Delivery of Adapters activity. Enter a name for the risk event, delivery delay.
Skipping the delivery delay probability settings for the moment we examine the options for the schedule impact, Figure 7.
The schedule impact values are too large for our 13-day duration project. The lowest impact, very low, is 20-days, which is not in the range of our project. These values are adjusted in the risk matrix. Select the risk matrix icon, Figure 8.
In Figure 9 we specify the very low to very high values, which go from 1-day to 4-days.
This is a more reasonable range for the adapters’ procurement delay values. Note the cost values are also out of range for our project, but we do not need to adjust them because we are going to set the cost impact to negligible.
Continuing we set the probability of a Delivery Delay to High (50% to 75%), Figure 10.
It is likely that the adapters will not arrive as planned. The schedule impact is set to High (4d), Figure 11.
We are expecting a probable 4-day delay on the delivery. Again, the cost impact is negligible. The assumption is that labor resources can be reassigned to other projects during the delay, so no additional labor costs are incurred on the Piping Inspection & Repair project due to procurement delays. The procurement delay risk event definition is now complete.
We first want to examine the schedule with no risk events. So we need to set the scenario to uncertainty only and no risk events, Figure 12.
Note that the duration uncertainty is set to very conservative, Figure 13, which means we plan to meet or beat duration estimates.
In Figure 14 we select run risk analysis.
The risk analysis results are displayed in Figure 15.
A graph of the iterations displays above and metrics below. Reviewing both the graph and metrics we find that all the iterations completed on or before April 17, 2019; 100% of all iterations met the deterministic date, April 17th. This agrees with our very conservative duration uncertainty setting, where we would expect activity durations to meet or beat estimates.
Now let’s examine our schedule including the procurement risk event. We set the risk analysis to uncertainty and risk events (no mitigation), Figure 16.
We run the risk analysis. The results are displayed in Figure 17.
This time only 82% of the iterations met the deterministic April 17th, 2019 end date. And the worst case outcome was an April 22nd, 2019 end date, which equates to a 4-day delay in adapter procurement. The resulting worst case schedule delay is three days. Well, 82% still provides us a level of confidence of completing the project on schedule. But we would want to have a contingency plan in case we realize the four day procurement delay.
Most schedules provide deterministic end date predictions where the durations are thought to be known with certainty. The reality is that duration estimates are rarely certain, and additional risk events may create more uncertainty.
Deltek Acumen handles both duration uncertainty and risk events. It is also possible to run duration uncertainties without risk events and compare to results with risk events. In this way schedulers can plan their projects, accordingly, in consideration of potential risks.
Deltek Acumen, in particular, can be used to model procurement delay risks. Deltek Acumen also can also model the mitigation of risk events. A complement to this demonstration is to show the mitigation of the procurement delay, possibly, by securing next day delivery service, and accepting the increased delivery cost.