The Risk Exposure Comparison Chart or the S Chart Analyzer is commonly used to compare the probability curves between different risk models.
Deltek Acumen Risk’s schedule simulation software provides Monte Carlo probability distributions based on activity uncertainty. This Monte Carlo analysis is a significant improvement over single point deterministic schedule analysis. Additionally, schedulers can include risk events in their Acumen Risk Monte Carlo analysis.
This article demonstrates how to create risk exposure comparison charts to investigate the variance between risk free and risk adjusted schedules.
In Figure 1, we have a project schedule imported into Deltek Acumen Risk.
Note the duration uncertainty of all activities is set to very conservative, which indicates we would expect the activity durations to meet or beat estimates. Though this is a short project there are four risks that could have a negative impact on schedule completion.
These risks include Delivery Delays, Adapters Wrong Size, Quality Assurance Inspectors Unavailable, and Rework Required. We want to investigate the variance between the risk free schedule and risk adjusted schedule.
We begin by setting the risk analysis scenario to uncertainty only (no risk events), Figure 2.
After running the Monte Carlo simulation the results are displayed in Figure 3.
All iterations meet or beat the planned schedule completion date, April 28, 2020. In the risk exposure ribbon select ‘add to risk comparison’ icon to include the analysis S plot in the risk exposure comparison graph.
Now set the risk analysis to include risk events, Figure 4.
We again run the Monte Carlo simulation and achieve the results displayed in Figure 5.
Now the probability of meeting the deterministic results is only 61%, not ideal. Again, click ‘add to risk comparison’ icon to save the S plot in the risk exposure comparison graph.
Continue and select risk exposure comparison in the risk views ribbon, Figure 6.
The risk exposure comparison graph is displayed in Figure 7.
Move the mouse cursor to the 80 percentile and left click the mouse to insert a variance marker, Figure 8.
Also, update the plot title names, again, Figure 8. The final graph is displayed in Figure 9.
The risks at 80 percentile are expected to add 7 days to the schedule.
In Deltek Acumen Risk it is possible to run a Monte Carlo analysis with no risks and with risks included. Further, risk free and risk adjusted schedules are comparable in the S Chart Analyzer. Schedulers in the chart can plot the variance between S charts to examine the impact of risk. Acumen Risk is also capable of including risk mitigation efforts that may be included in a risk exposure comparison graph.